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At first, Trump gave the impression to take a strong approach on Ukraine. After making threats of "serious ramifications" in August in case Russia's president continued blocking truce negotiations, he ultimately enacted considerable restrictions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision substantially impacted Putin's ability to finance his military invasion in the region.

However, through his latest 28-point peace proposal for Ukraine, which was drafted by both nations' officials without Ukraine's or EU input, he has seemingly reverted to his pro-Putin position.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's plan would essentially favor the Russian leader for invading a sovereign nation while putting the country's political freedom in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", much of the proposal effectively compromise that same sovereignty. Seen as a Russian ideal would certainly be a disaster for Ukraine.

Showing his real-estate background, the former president persists to consider the war as a simple border issue, as if giving Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the leader. But, Russia's invasion is not only about dominating a damaged area of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about Ukraine's political system – and Putin's clear intention to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an appealing model for the Russian people of the accountable government that his deepening autocracy denies them.

Border Concessions

While keeping in status the currently split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would force Ukraine to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding Russia with land that its troops have been unable to seize in over a decade of fighting, this concession would render Ukrainian defensive positions severely undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the entrenched military defenses that represent a essential barrier to enemy progress. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, providing Putin a clear path to the capital should he eventually choose to renew the conflict.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a step that would enable future hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would force Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their current 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a maximum of this lower number. Notably, the initiative places no such restrictions on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to depict the nation's chosen by the people government as extremists, the plan asserts: "Every Nazi belief system and actions must be condemned and banned." Apparently to highlight this element, it requires that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that Putin jeopardize his regime by holding democratic processes in Russia.

Defense Assurances

Certainly, the plan makes Russia promise not to "attack bordering nations" and to "incorporate in legislation its stance of peaceful relations towards European nations and Ukraine". Yet given that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its historical atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a restoration of occupied areas in the Donbas to Kyiv – for what reason should the international community trust this commitment on this occasion?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. Although the initiative warns of a "immediate unified military response" should Russia renew its invasion, and states that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the details range from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also preclude member states from deploying forces on Ukrainian territory, thereby blocking the security presence, reportedly commanded by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his diminished troops, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

Another side agreement apparently would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any later "serious, intentional, and ongoing military assault" by Russia on the country "shall be regarded as an act of war jeopardizing the stability and safety of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. However in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best protection against renewed invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would depend on the dedication of Nato leaders, like Trump, to act with force to Putin's aggression, an action they have {not