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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a truly chilling precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to turn attention back home – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.